Box office preview: 'The Hunger Games: Catching Fire' targeting the best debut of 2013
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Katniss has her bow and arrow aimed squarely at the top of the box
office, and The Hunger Games: Catching Fire will easily open at No. 1.
But will Catching Fire break The Dark Knight Rises‘ $160.9 million
record as the best 2-D opening of all... time? And will it surpass Iron Man 3‘s $174 million opening take as the best of 2013? Well, let’s parse this out.
The original Hunger Games opened to a jaw-dropping $152.5 million in
March 2012, a figure that Catching Fire should surpass with ease. Even
if it somehow doesn’t, the sequel, which cost Lionsgate about $130
million, would be in fine shape. Overseas revenues are expected to be
much more robust than they were for the first film, which took in
$691.2 million worldwide.
Domestically, The Hunger Games
grossed $408 million total, and in the past year and a half, passion
for the dystopian series — and its Oscar-winning star Jennifer Lawrence
— has only swelled. Catching Fire is thus tracking substantially better
than its predecessor, and it should earn at least $160 million this
weekend. It should be noted that the original Hunger Games is by far
the most popular book in the trilogy, and some viewers may have been
drawn to the first film based on their affection for that book alone.
However, the vast majority of viewers left the film with a positive
reaction, and strong reviews for Catching Fire mean that much of the
biggest target demo (women, who made up 61 percent of The Hunger Games‘
audience) will be coming back for more.
Catching Fire is the
number one-seller of advance tickets this year according to Fandango.
And that means that, theoretically, it could outshine Iron Man 3, which
sold over $174 million worth of tickets in its opening weekend in May.
Catching Fire is also nicely positioned to play incredibly well over
the Thanksgiving frame, since it appeals to audiences young and old.
Marketing has been vibrant, accessible, and genuinely exciting. All
that being said, I’m inclined to support exciting box office finishes,
so I’m giving this one the slight edge on Iron Man 3 and saying
Catching Fire opens with $175 million.
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Meanwhile, the week’s other newcomer, Disney’s $22 million Vince Vaughn
dramedy Delivery Man, isn’t expected to deliver much at the box office.
Marketing for the film, about a man who discovers his sperm donations
have resulted in 500 children, has been uneven in tone and, frankly, a
little icky for a potential family destination. The tepidly received
Delivery Man may only achieve a $10 million opening weekend.
Predictions for Nov. 22-24:
1. The Hunger Games: Catching Fire – $175 million
2. The Best Man Holiday – $16.5 million
3. Thor: The Dark World – $15.5 million
4. Delivery Man – $10 million
5. Last Vegas – $6 million
How big do you think Catching Fire will be? Stay tuned to EW for full coverage this weekend.